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Bitcoin Daily Update (day 285)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019 | Calling a top in the S&P 500 at $2,634 Previous analysis: “Watching $3,200 support very closely.” Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778 | Short XRP:BTC from 8710 sats | Short USDT:USD from $0.99 | Short BTC:USD from $3,288.5 Patterns: Bear trend / hyperwave Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,142 | R: $3,250 BTCUSDSHORTS: When squeeze? Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0297% Short term trend (4 day MA): Full candle below, bearish as it gets. Watch for continued resistance Medium term trend (9 day MA): Trending down Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Bearish Overall trend: Bearish Volume: Volume increasing as price sells off. Indicates that move is real. Candlestick analysis: Really thought we would see an extended range candle if we broke $3,200. Where did this support at $3,150 come from? Ichimoku Cloud: Kijun just turned down sharply, starting to resolve C-Clamp. Makes me very interested how this is calculated. Do you any of you know? TD’ Sequential: R2 closed < r1 and now r3 = r2. C13 Visible Range: Ah, the high volume node that I discounted due to consolidated slightly above is where the support likely came from. Price action: 24h: -2.3% | 14d: -20.2% | 1m: -46.9% Bollinger Bands: Really thought a breakdown of $3,200 would lead to a retest of the bottom band at ~$3,000. Trendline: Right in between the 4 and 9 MA’s, indicating a serious resistance cluster at $3,250 - $3,350. Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Bearish af’ Parabolic SAR: Just noticed that it is holding up nicely on the 1h. I am very impressed with the SAR on every time frame. Daily = $4,007 RSI: Back below 30 and created a lower low Stochastic: Ugly as it gets. Last Day Rule: Now we would need a move above $3,500 for setup day, makes me feel good about my stop at $3,551. Summary: Everything is about as bearish as it can get except for the daily candle. I really expected another candle like yesterdays if we broke down $3,200. Instead we found support at $3,150 and close a candle that indicates that bears losing momentum. However, outside of that everything else is indicating lower prices in the next few days / weeks. Volume increasing as price sells off, TD’ Sequential being on a red 3, Ichimoku C-Clamp resolving itself, full candle below the 4 MA, continued resistance from the trendline. Until we close above that trendline and the 4 MA then I am feeling very good about holding a short. Even if we do bounce then I expect that to be very short lived.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 198)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 Previous analysis / position: “There is nothing to do at this point other than to wait. Ideally we will get a sharp spike to $6,700 before breaking down...If that doesn’t happen then we will likely continue to consolidate for days - weeks.” / Closed ETH:USD shorts due to high volume dragonfly doji from yesterday’s close. Using 5:1 leverage that position returned +147.85% in 12 days. Patterns: Descending triangle Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,525 & $6,777 | S: Will it turn $6,425 into support?? BTCUSDSHORTS: Will it create a lower high or higher low? | Most of the shorts are on Bitfinex and most of the longs are on Bitmex. Since Bitfinex only allows 3.33X leverage I think the longs are in more danger of getting squeezed/liquidated. Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.007% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Current candle is retesting 12 EMA for resistance. 26 = -2.26% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -5.15% | 128 = -7.95% Volume: Still waiting for volume spike to define the next move. FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,610 | 0.5 = $6,767 Candlestick analysis: Currently forming bullish extended range candle. Ichimoku Cloud: Tenken-Sen = $6,772 TD’ Sequential: G2 > G1 is providing entry, however I would stay away due to trading against the trend and unfavorable risk:reward ratio. 4h is currently on a 7 and indicates a correction in about 10 hours. Visible Range: High volume node at $6,511 with 2 month lookback. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +1.86% | 24h = +3.58% | 1w = +/- 0 | 2w = -7.44% | 1m = +3.16% Bollinger Bands: A return to the MA at $6,743 is to be expected after bouncing from the bottom band Trendline: Top end of descending triangle will waiting around $7,000 Daily Trend: Bullish Fractals: Up = $7,475 | Down = $6,065 On Balance Volume: Moving up with price / no div’s ADX: Bear trend with -DI and +DI converging. Chaikin Money Flow: Turning over and potentially creating a bear div’ RSI (30 setting): W = 49.03 | D = 46.72 Stoch: Bearish re cross on weekly with buy signal on daily Summary: This is the bounce that I have been waiting/hoping for. After closing out the rest of my shorts I am ready to re open at a better price. Now it is very important to remain patient and not enter too early. According to the TD’ Sequential this bounce still has 7 days left. However, I am not sure if we will get to a 9 on this rally due to the following resistance cluster that is waiting from $6,743 - $6,887: Daily Tenken-sen = $6,772 0.5 FIB = $6,767 (also 50% point of extended range weekly candle) 50 Day MA: $6,836 and angling downward Gap in the volume profile. Low volume node at $6,800 could place the resistance as high as $6,887 Bollinger Band MA = $6,743 I will continue with my approach of watching BTC’ and trading ETH. ETH looks like it should bounce to $240 - $250 before continuing it’s downtrend. That area provided significant support in the past and should turn into significant resistance moving forward. I am also planning on opening large shorts on EOS:BTC and EOS:ETH based on this analysis.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
3
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 202)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 Previous analysis / position: “The market is showing significant signs of a top with the 12h red 9, daily dojis at resistance and today’s candle creating a lower low than September 14th.” / Short ETH:BTC from 0.03143 | Short ETH:USD from $211.96 | Short EOS:ETH from 0.0252326 Patterns: Descending triangle. Horizontal support and resistance: 0.886 FIB being tested for support at $6,248 | 0.786 FIB should become ressitance at $6,377 BTCUSDSHORTS: Just broke out of bull flag. 54,125 is the target. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0079% (first time longs have paid in a week+) 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -2.89% | 28 = -4.61% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -6.42% | 128 = -10.17% Volume: Large volume seems to be following this current sell off. FIB’s: 0.786 = $6,377 | 0.886 = $6,248 | 1.618 = $5,330 Candlestick analysis: Bearish extended range candle has confirmed hanging man. Have already retraced 80% of last weeks candle. Ichimoku Cloud: Fully bearish. 4h cloud has been very helpful over past couple weeks. TD’ Sequential: 1h is on a red 6 which indicates 3 more hours to the downside before consolidating or bouncing. Price flip on the daily. Red 3 on the 4h and currently testing TDST for suppoert at $6,250 Visible Range: Point of control/high volume node at $6,300. That should turn into strong resistance. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -4% | 24h = -3.41% | 1w = -0.63% | 2w = -14.93% | 1m = -0.87% Bollinger Bands: Failed to return to MA after bouncing from bottom band. MA starting to angle downward on daily and weekly. Trendline: Top of descending triangle Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: Up = $6,578 | Down = $6,115 On Balance Volume: Turning over with price / no div’s ADX: Indicates no trend Chaikin Money Flow: Created new low on daily for bear div'. RSI (30 setting): W = 48.33 | D = 43.87 Stoch: Made bearish re cross on the daily Summary: We have been expecting some volatility for a while and it is starting to feel like this will be the week. This bounce did not take us as high as expected which indicates that the buyers are getting exhausted and the supply remains consistent. I can see the short sellers exploding to over 50,000 while the price breaks down $5,000. If that happens then the fear should start to set in and the volatility should pick up significantly. I firmly believe that we need capitulation in order to end this bear market and that is how I expect it to happen. If you are not in a position then now is not a good time to enter. There was plenty of time to build short positions over the last couple days. If you passed on that opportunity and want to short now then you ought to seriously reconsider your approach. The trendline on ETH’ provided a great risk:reward which is no longer attainable. Keep an eye on the 1h hour TD’ Sequential if you are dying to make an entry today. It should get a 1-4 hour bounce after a red 9 and that would be the time to sell. A retest of $6,350 on BTC’ and $212 on ETH’ would provide attractive entries. EOS:BTC appears to be breaking down and that could provide a great entry as well. I have an order set to short EOS:BTC at 0.0007474. Click here to read that analysis.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
5
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 278)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019. Previous analysis: Was very surprised how even it was. Made a bullish and a bearish case Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778 Patterns: Hyperwave | Parabolic curve (4h) Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,200 - $3,311 | R: $3,464 - $3,552 BTCUSDSHORTS: New all time high Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.1344% Short term trend (4 day MA): Close below Medium term trend (9 day MA): Bearish cross and trending down Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Bearish as it gets Overall trend: Still bearish as it gets Volume: Big, next 24 hours are very important. It will either bounce off that volume indicating that it was oversold. Or it will turn the bottom of the body into strong resistance Candlestick analysis: High volume doji that has confirmed Ichimoku Cloud: Useless TD’ Sequential: Daily r7 and weekly r4 indicate more room to the downside Visible Range: Didn’t quite fill the gap Price action: 24h: +3.48% Bollinger Bands: Didn’t quite touch the bottom band Trendline: Turnt into a parabola Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Parabolic SAR: $4,314 RSI: Looks like it is throwing back to the neckline of the h&s while in a bull div’ Stochastic: Posturing for a buy Last Day Rule: For bulls the setup day is $3,206 | For bears it is $4,397 Summary: Two days in a row where I am as neutral as can be. There are a number of indicators that can be interpreted a couple of different ways and none of them of giving me any confidence about where we are heading next, outside of the most important. Bearish Case Consensio is fully bearish. The more I learn about Consensio the more I am learning not to bet against it. If I would have listened to the rules then I would still be in my short from ~ $6,300. Instead I closed out around $4,000 and even tried opening a long. I am going to be completely revamping the daily update coming soon due to how much this experience has taught me about recognizing trends and then following them above all else. The daily and weekly TD' Sequential also show more room to the downside. I was also viewing this parabolic pattern as very bearish and a potential indication of upcoming capitulation until I posted it in Tyler Jenks hyperwave Telegram and was quickly corrected by a trader that I have a lot of respect for. Bullish Case “Parabolic moves are characterized by unsustainability. They are quite fragile and tend to break in the opposite direction.” -David Puell a/k/a @kenoshaking At first I saw the price turning prior support into resistance and posturing for a big move. Now I am inclined to agree with David. Furthermore we are looking at high volume reversal candles on a number of large cap coins. BTC’, ETH’, LTC’, EOS’. That really, really made me want to close the rest of my shorts and open another long. However, I am making improvements to my stop loss strategy and sticking to a new rule, which is never betting against the short term trend. EOS’ is a great example of my new approach to stop losses. I was deep into the profit on a perfected daily 9 and really wanted to close out. Instead I trailed my stop to 50% of the prior days marubozu (ex: if extended range candle / marbozu then draw fib on the individual candle and place stop at 50% point. This should be slightly above the 4 day MA. If it isn't then make sure to adjust the stop). In regards to betting against the trend: if I want to go long (like I do off the confirmed high volume reversal candle) then I must wait for a daily close above the 4 MA.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
4
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 221)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 Previous analysis / position: “If they can breakthrough $6,600 and support it then we should retest $7,000. If that happens I will still be viewing it as a bull trap.” / $6,400 - $6,700 = no trade zone Patterns: Descending triangle Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,675 | S: $6,640 BTCUSDSHORTS: Creating new local high Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 & 26 = +1% and making bullish crossover 50 & 128 MA’s: 50: +0.45% | 128: -1.71% (should be strong resistance at $6,765) Volume: Prior two candles had a big dip in volume, now it is starting to build again FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,600 | 0.5 = $6,759 | 0.382 = $6,918 Candlestick analysis: Took out yesterdays hanging man, but today's candle is forming a bearish wick after breaking out of the first down trend/triangle. This is what I said to watch out for yesterday to identify a potential fake breakout. Ichimoku Cloud: Current candle is re entering 12h cloud. 4h cloud is fully bullish. TD’ Sequential: W: G2 > G1 | D: G4 | 12h: G2 > G1 | 4h: G7 Visible Range: Gap in volume between $6,800 and $7,250 represents prime opportunity for a bull trap/fake breakout. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +0.39% | 24h: +0.74% | 1w: +0.81% | 2w: +3.19% | 1m: +4.03% Bollinger Bands: Still hasn’t tested top daily band. I would expect a fake breakout to violate the top band and then quickly return to the MA. Trendline: Has violated trend/triangle that connects 7/24 - 9/4. Daily Trend: Bullish Fractals: Up at $6,685 was briefly violated. Down at $6,419 and looks like we will form a new one at $6,519 On Balance Volume: Looks like it is going to retest the descending triangle that it recently broke down ADX: ADX finally looks like it is turning up after finding support at Chaikin Money Flow: RSI (30 setting): Broke out of it’s symmetrical triangle, supported throwback and created a new local high 4.55 (low since March 2016) Stoch: Surprised to see that it made a bearish re cross on the weekly, while starting to diverge in a bullish manner on daily. Summary: Today's candle is breaking out of the symmetrical triangle that is inside the larger descending triangle, however the move is weaker than I expected. I expected a large spike in buy volume to follow the trendline violation combined with an extended range candle to $7,000+. The 1h chart looks toppy' af’ with a very bearish wick from 12 hours ago currently being re explored. Nevertheless support continues to move up. This has been a common theme over the past couple weeks and is a main reason why I had a losing streak and was forced to label $6,400 - $6,700 a no trade zone. I will continue to sit on my waits and wait for further development. The 12h and weekly TD' Sequentials are providing a long entry, but I am passing on both. I remain bearish and am looking for bearish entries. As I have stated many times I will not turn bullish until we create a higher high on the weekly chart (> $7,500), get a golden cross on the 50 / 128 day MA's and breakthrough the daily Ichimoku Cloud.
by Sawcruhteez
2
EURNZD strong daily demand level at 1.89. Long biasSupply and demand imbalances are the driving forces behind price movements in the Forex market. By identifying these key zones or imbalances, traders can anticipate high-probability reversal or continuation setups. Today, we’ll analyze the EURNZD cross pair, which has recently formed a strong demand imbalance at $1.89—the most significant impulse in months. The Power of Supply & Demand Imbalances Supply and demand trading revolves around identifying areas where price has made a strong, impulsive move (demand or supply zone) and then waiting for a retracement into that zone for a potential reversal or continuation. Key Characteristics of a Strong Imbalance: ✅ Extended Range Candles (ERC): Strong, wide-bodied candles indicate institutional buying/selling. ✅ Strong Imbalance: A clear shift in market structure after a strong rally or drop. ✅ Fresh Zone: The imbalance has not been tested yet or has only been tested once.
by AlfonsoMoreno
WTI Potentially Re-entering SZAs prices respond to the current Supply Zone, the rejection appears less significant compared to previous instances, with smaller candles and no extended range candles (ERCs) forming. I anticipate that prices may retrace back into the Supply Zone and potentially even attempt a breakout towards the next zone, around the 74.500 level. My strategy is to capture a quick upward move without waiting for a full breakout of the current zone. I'll place a Buy Stop order, aiming for a 50-pip gain. If prices break through the zone afterward, I’ll look for another entry opportunity. If prices were to keep falling from this point on, then the trade will be invalidated and cancelled. If triggered and gone lower, SL at 40pips.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by shidiq
USDJPY BeOB Confirmed - Strong JPY against the weak USD is noticeable with the IMB shift by the 1hr Extended Range Candlestick on 13/12/2023. - 3RR TP1 confirmed at price 140.957 closing 1hr candlestick 14/12/2023 0600hrs GMT-3. - Significant Support Resistance (Flip Zone) glares at 144.958. - BMS confirms confluence marking our Tp2 at the price 140.254 28/12/23. - Liquidity void clears opposing OB clearing SL for retail traders price chasers, and MM mitigate losses. - Rectangle 'X' marks the BeOB confirmation as our new resistance at the price 145.471. - Evaluating our minimum acceptable loss at 145.981. - Tp3 runners up at 137.246.
Short
by Only1Gitau
2
BTCUSD Feeling a Little Heavy. Bitcoin is looking a little heavy since creating a dead cat bounce on Aug 29, rebalancing some of the Weekly SIBI FVG from Aug 17 which closed as an extended range candle. Price is within a daily range between 28184 high and 25234 low. I am expecting the monthly pool of sellside liquidity to be targeted in the coming days reaching for 24750 price level. If price reaches for the low, then the algo is likely continue to spool lower toward the two underlying daily BISI fair value gaps as outlined in the chart between 24000-22276 and 21882-20964 over the coming weeks, likely before end of Q3 in October.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by DenisRisticFX
EURUSD: Post Fed's Rate Cut TechnicalsTaking into account the recent Fed's rate cut and other fundamental developments, let's shift our focus to the technicals of EURUSD. After a strong rejection from a major supply zone (SZ), prices dropped significantly, forming two waves with two extended range candles (ERCs). This downward movement could potentially continue and might even reach the next major demand zone (DZ). However, I would prefer to see a deeper retracement before considering a SELL entry. As usual, my target is to capture no more than 30 pips, and I’ll look to enter on the M15 time frame, provided a valid entry opportunity arises. I will also be monitoring GBPUSD as the setups are pretty much similar.
Short
by shidiq
2
Supply and Demand set up - LongMonthly trend up, Weekly trend up, Daily trend up. When daily trend breaks it will reallign with weekly demand level (green box) the weekly level has a strong departure, one massive 80% erc (extended range candle) compact base, consolidation away, 2:1 move from the level. Also daily level (blue box) has a great move away with a gap up, 4 candle compact base, how to read my charts blue =daily levels adn trendlines green= weekly levels and trendlines orange= monthly levels and trendlines.
NYSE:HPQLong
by Blased